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Statistical Dimensioning of Nutrient Loading Reduction: LLR Assessment Tool for Lake Managers

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Abstract

Implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) has set a great challenge on river basin management planning. Assessing the water quality of lakes and coastal waters as well as setting the accepted nutrient loading levels requires appropriate decision supporting tools and models. Uncertainty that is inevitably related to the assessment results and rises from several sources calls for more precise quantification and consideration. In this study, we present a modeling tool, called lake load response (LLR), which can be used for statistical dimensioning of the nutrient loading reduction. LLR calculates the reduction that is needed to achieve good ecological status in a lake in terms of total nutrients and chlorophyll a (chl-a) concentration. We show that by combining an empirical nutrient retention model with a hierarchical chl-a model, the national lake monitoring data can be used more efficiently for predictions to a single lake. To estimate the uncertainties, we separate the residual variability and the parameter uncertainty of the modeling results with the probabilistic Bayesian modeling framework. LLR has been developed to answer the urgent need for fast and simple assessment methods, especially when implementing WFD at such an extensive scale as in Finland. With a case study for an eutrophic Finnish lake, we demonstrate how the model can be utilized to set the target loadings and to see how the uncertainties are quantified and how they are accumulating within the modeling chain.

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Acknowledgments

We thank Roger Jones (University of Jyväskylä) for valuable comments on the early versions of the manuscript. This study was funded by the Finnish Ministry of the Environment, the GisBloom EU/Life + project (Life09 ENV/FI/000569), the WISER 7th EU Framework Programme (Contract No.: 226273), and the integrated EU project MARS (“Managing Aquatic ecosystems and water Resources under multiple Stress”) within Framework Programme 7, Theme ENV.2013.6.2-1: Water resources management under complex, multi-stressor conditions (Contract No. 603378). Work of Anita Pätynen was funded by Maj and Tor Nessling foundation, the VALUE doctoral school and the Maa- ja vesitekniikan tuki ry.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Finnish Environment Institute, PL35, 40500, Jyväskylä, Finland

    Niina Kotamäki, Anita Pätynen & Timo Huttula

  2. Department of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Jyväskylä, PL35, 40014, Jyväskylä, Finland

    Anita Pätynen

  3. Finnish Environment Institute, PL140, 00251, Helsinki, Finland

    Antti Taskinen & Olli Malve

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  1. Niina Kotamäki
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  2. Anita Pätynen
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Correspondence to Niina Kotamäki.

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Kotamäki, N., Pätynen, A., Taskinen, A. et al. Statistical Dimensioning of Nutrient Loading Reduction: LLR Assessment Tool for Lake Managers. Environmental Management 56, 480–491 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-015-0514-0

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